Dec 23 2011

Titanium Metals TIE Forecast Using Mirror Cycle

Written by:
Patrick Mikula CTA
Mikula Forecasting Company
www.MikulaForecasting.com
support@MikulaForecasting.com
Copyright © 2011 by Patrick Mikula All Rights Reserved

I previously posted a forecast of the stock Titanium Metals (TIE) using the moving average indicator’s mirror cycle forecast. Here in this post I will show the current forecast for TIE using the same method. The chart below is the 720 minute TIE chart made using Forecasting Made Easy 2012. The 720 minute chart is basically 2 bars per day. All the indicators in Forecasting Made Easy can be used to forecast market cycles by setting a historical top or bottom as the starting point for the indicator to display a forecast into the future. In the picture below I have set the moving average forecast starting point on the TIE top that occurred in the last week on October 2011. After this date the moving average is drawing a mirror cycle forecast. This forecast roughly lined up with the swing tops and bottoms at points A, B, C and D. After point D the forecast cycle makes a swing down into the first week of 2012. The forecast for TIE is for the stock to decline into the end of the year and through the first week of 2012.

The subchart I have a multi time frame momentum indicator. The green line is the 720 minute momentum indicator. The magenta line that is slightly stair stepped is the weekly momentum. Now notice the weekly momentum is in the middle of the momentum range which is 0 to 100. And notice the 720 minute momentum is at the top of the range very close to 100.  So the short time frame momentum is over bought and the long-term momentum in neutral. This indicates the market is ready to make a top.

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Dec 23 2011

Gold Forecast Based on Platinum

Written by:
Patrick Mikula CTA
Mikula Forecasting Company
www.MikulaForecasting.com
support@MikulaForecasting.com
Copyright © 2011 by Patrick Mikula All Rights Reserved

I wanted to post this chart a week ago but I could not find the time. I believe this chart still has value for traders watching the gold market. The big question for gold traders going into 2012 is whether gold is going to continue the bull market into 2012. There is a simple way to determine if gold prices are going to be heading down or up. You simply need to plot gold on the same chart as platinum. The chart below was made with Forecasting made Easy 2012 and shows the weekly gold and platinum using the same price scale. The normal relationship for these two metals is that platinum is higher priced than gold. Notice on this chart the platinum red bars are below the gold green and blue bars. As long as the platinum price is below the gold price the bull market in gold will not continue. So for now the gold forecast is for prices to move sideways to down and this will be the forecast as long as platinum prices are below the gold price.

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Dec 16 2011

Forecasting the S&P500 with the MarketWarrior Dewey Cycle Indicator

Written by:
Patrick Mikula CTA
Mikula Forecasting Company
www.MikulaForecasting.com
support@MikulaForecasting.com
Copyright © 2011 by Patrick Mikula All Rights Reserved

I would like to discuss one of the most over looked forecasting indicators in MarketWarrior. This is the Dewey Cycle indicator. This is a simple cycle indicator based on the work of Edward Dewey. This indicator can set up to 6 cycles and and create a composite cycle if desired. In the first picture, I have added the Dewey cycle indicator to the daily S&P500. I have set the cycle length based on the low to low distance from the market at point A and the bottom at point B. This low to low distance defines the short term cycle in red that I will use.

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The next picture shows the second cycle that I am using with the S&P500 daily chart. This is a medium length cycle and is in green. This cycle is set up based on the low to high length between the bottom at point A and the top at point B.

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The third chart below shows the cycles after the set up dates. I have manually added the arrows where these simple cycles lined up with the Change In Trend (CIT) points on the S&P500 daily chart. You can see these simple cycles did very well to line up with market CIT points.

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The next chart shows the future space on the S&P500 chart. This is the area that shows the cycles out to June 2012. This indicator is very easy to use. You only need to watch the market approach each cycle top and bottom and watch for a market CIT point. If the market makes a CIT near the cycle turning point, then you can make a trade and try to capture some of the ensuing market move.

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The final two charts below show how to use the composite feature in the MarketWarrior Dewey cycle indicator. On the next chart I have added a 3rd cycle. This is an extra long cycle and is drawn as a blue line. Now we have three cycles. A short red cycle, a long green cycle and a extra long blue cycle.

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On the final chart below I have selected the composite option in the indicator and now the indicator is drawing as a composite cycle line. This composite cycle is shown out through June 2012 for the S&P500 daily chart.

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Dec 15 2011

eBook Upgrade Underway

Written by:
Patrick Mikula CTA
Mikula Forecasting Company
www.MikulaForecasting.com
support@MikulaForecasting.com
Copyright © 2011 by Patrick Mikula All Rights Reserved

.

Our current set of eBooks were created using the eBookPro program. The eBookPro software is now being discontinued. This decision is beyond our control. So we are currently in the process of reformatting and upgrading our eBooks to a new format. The new ebooks will initially be available for the Barnes & Noble NOOK. MarketWarrior owners will also have the options to get the eBooks as a standalone .exe for Windows. Later the eBooks will be made available through Amazon.com for the Kindle.

Thank You for your patience.

Square of Nine Book tn_0-9650518-3-8.jpg tn_v1v2cover.jpg tn_v1v2cover.jpg 

newcoverart199.jpg newcoverart399.jpg newcoverart31.jpg

 

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Dec 14 2011

Forecasting The S&P500 With The Square of Nine

Written by:
Patrick Mikula CTA
Mikula Forecasting Company
www.MikulaForecasting.com
support@MikulaForecasting.com
Copyright © 2011 by Patrick Mikula All Rights Reserved

In this blog posting I am going to be discussing the Square of Nine method that is presented in Chapter 5  of the book The Definitive Guide to Forecasting Using W.D.Gann’s Square of  Nine. This method will use time cycles on the Square of Nine to forecast the  daily S&P500. The first step in using this method is to select the date of a major top or bottom in the past which will be used to start the Square of Nine. In this example I am using the S&P500 so I have chosen the top date from 2000, March 24. This was the major bull market top which ended the century long super-cycle. The first picture below shows a Square of Nine in MarketWarrior with the starting date set to 2000/March/24. I have circled this in red and labeled it A. The Square of Nine charts in this example are compressed because the placement of dates in the Square of Nine cells makes the square very large. The starting value on the Square of Nine is always placed outside the square and not in cell one. The starting value represents the zero point and the value in cell one is the starting value plus one.

Tip For selecting the starting date:
1) A major long-term top or bottom usually works best to start the Square of Nine. You can also use an incorporation date for a stock if you know it.

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Step 2 for this method is the placement of the angle overlay on the Square of Nine. The angle overlay has a zero degree line which represents the starting point of the overlay. In this example I have selected the S&P500 bottom from 2010/August/25. On the next Square of Nine I have circled the date “10/08/25″ and the red angle line is the zero degree angle of the overlay which cross through this date.

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Next lets see what this looks like on the S&P500 daily chart. The picture below is the daily chart for the S&P500 and the MarketWarrior indicator named “Sq9Chapter 5″ has been added to this chart. The vertical red line labeled B is the Square of Nine zero degree angle. This line is aligned to the date 2010/08/25 where the market bottom occurred. You should look at this price chart and the previous Square of Nine chart and understand that they show the same thing.

Tips for selecting the overlay starting point:
A major Change in Trend (CIT) or possibly a CIT that is one-back or one-foreword of a major CIT usually work the best for the overlay zero line. In the S&P500 example the major bottom occurred in July 2010 I am using the bottom that is one-foreword in August 2010.

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The third step to use this method is to select the overlay angles that line up with market tops and bottoms and will be used for forecasting. The MarketWarrior indicator seen on the chart below is drawing both the calendar days count and the trading days count. When selecting the overlay angles that will be displayed you are not trying to find an angle for every market tops and bottom. You are trying to locate overlay angles that have a high probability of success finding CIT. There will usually be 1 to 4 over lay angles that have a high correlation with CIT. In this example the 4 overlay angles 0 Degrees, 60 Degrees, 225 Degrees and 300 Degrees have a high correlation with CIT in the S&P500. I have manually drawn the blue zig-zag line and placed the overlay degree values above the top or bottom points of this zig-zag line. You can see that not every turn in the S&P500 is located with this method. Also I have included the next two forecast turning point dates. These are last (0Deg) bottom and (60Deg-300Deg ) top in the zig-zag line. By mousing over the points in the MarketWarrior chart I can see they are 2012 January 16 and 2012 February 27 respectively. These are high probability turning points in the S&P500 daily chart.

Tips for selecting the overlay angles:
1) The high probability angles often have two angles from the groups (45-90-135-225-270-315) or (60-120-240-300). In this S&P500 example 60 and 300 were used.
2) There is no automatic way to select these points. It should take about 30 minutes to do this after you go through the process a few times.

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It is important to work with the Square of Nine until you have an understanding of this method. But it is important to point out that it is much more difficult to see the correlation between the overlay angle dates and the market CIT points when working with the Square of Nine rather than the chart. In fact once you have an understanding of how this method works you will rarely need to use the Square of Nine but will use the chart indicator instead. On the chart below I have labeled the overlay angles that line up with my zig-zag line as C, D, E, F and G. I have added one picture below for each of these CIT that shows the CIT on the Square of Nine. In the Square of Nine pictures below I am showing the calendar days count. I do not show the pictures for the trading days count.

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The Square of Nine below shows CIT point C from the chart above. The Square of Nine in this example is showing the calendar days count. This turning point date fell close to the overlay 60 degree angle in cell 4008 and was 2011/March/15. This is circled in red on the Square of Nine.

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The Square of Nine below shows CIT point D from the chart above. The Square of Nine in this example is showing the calendar days count. This turning point date fell close to the overlay 0 degree angle in cell 4056 and was 2011/May/02. This is circled in red on the Square of Nine.

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The Square of Nine below shows CIT point E from the chart above. The Square of Nine in this example is showing the calendar days count. This turning point date fell close to the overlay 300 degree angle in cell 4101 and was 2011/June/16. This is circled in red on the Square of Nine.

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The Square of Nine below shows CIT point F from the chart above. The Square of Nine in this example is showing the calendar days count. This turning point date fell closest to the overlay 225 degree angle in cell 4136 and was 2011/July/21. This is circled in red on the Square of Nine.

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The Square of Nine below shows CIT point G from the chart above. The Square of Nine in this example is showing the calendar days count. This turning point date fell closest to the overlay 60 degree angle in cell 4273 and was 2011/December/05. This is circled in red on the Square of Nine.

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Oct 31 2011

New Menus in Forecasting Made Easy 2011

Written by:
Patrick Mikula CTA
Mikula Forecasting Company
www.MikulaForecasting.com
support@MikulaForecasting.com
Copyright © 2011 by Patrick Mikula All Rights Reserved

The software Forecasting Made Easy 2011 has now released version 11. This new version includes several new context menus that will allow you to find a lot of information about stock symbols very easily. When you select the Data tab that lists all the stock symbols you can see the new menus by selecting a symbol and doing a right mouse click. These menus are circled below. The menus can open a web page for a specific stock symbol for, (1)Barchart.com, (2)Wall Street Journal, (3)Yahoo Finance, (4) Google Finance, (5) MSN Money, (6) Motley Fool, (7) Seeking Alpha, (8) TheStreet.com and (9) Bloomberg. This will allow you to get a lot of information very fast for a stock symbol. The bottom three symbols show several web pages for the symbol NMM.

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Oct 14 2011

Mars Planet Line and Kohl Dept. Store

Written by:
Patrick Mikula CTA
Mikula Forecasting Company
www.MikulaForecasting.com
support@MikulaForecasting.com
Copyright © 2011 by Patrick Mikula All Rights Reserved

This is the final example of using the MarketWarrior indicator AT_Planet Lines Top Bottom. This indicator will draw a planet longitude line starting from a user selected high or low. In this example I am going to use the planet Mars and the daily chart for Kohl Department Stores (KSS). When using the indicator AT_Planet Lines Top Bottom, the user must assign the Multiply setting which determines the plant line slope. This has proven difficult for some traders. To solve this problem, I am showing an easy way to set the slope of the line.

To determine the correct slope, you should find a swing from high to low or low to high that looks like an average swing for the market in which you are interested. In this case I am using the low to high swing A – B. Once you select a swing, you can adjust the setting until the planet line touches both ends of the low to high swing. In this example the red line running from A to B is the Mars line and the slope is 0.25.

Next I have drawn the blue line starting from point C. This is another Mars line with a slope of 0.25. This line is sloping down but the angle is the same. Now you can see that there was a bottom on this line at point D and there was another bottom in early September that was very close to the line. This again shows that the same slope will repeat in the same market. When a market repeats a slope from high to low or low to high, you will be able to locate change in trend points by using this method.

 

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Oct 12 2011

Mars Planet Line and S&P500

Written by:
Patrick Mikula CTA
Mikula Forecasting Company
www.MikulaForecasting.com
support@MikulaForecasting.com
Copyright © 2011 by Patrick Mikula All Rights Reserved

In this discussion I am using the weekly chart for the S&P500. This is the third discussion of the MarketWarrior indicator AT_Planet Lines Top Bottom. This indicator draws a planet line originating from a user selected starting point. The tricky issue, when using this indicator, is setting the slope value for the planet line. This is controlled with the indicator setting Multiply. Most traders are not sure how to set this value. To see the true slope of a planet line, you can set the Multiply value to 1.0. An easy way to set the slope of the planet line is to select a swing from high to low or low to high and adjust the slope until the planet line exactly touches the low and high-end of the price swing.

In the picture below, the low at A and the top at B are being used to set the slope of the Mars line. The slope has been adjusted with the Multiply value 0.84 to make the Mars line touch both ends of the price swing.

In the second picture below, I have used the exact same line and started drawing it from the low at point C. This blue line is a Mars line with a slope value is 0.84. You can see the weekly S&P500 made a bottom at point D on this line. This demonstrates that a line slope will repeat in the same market. This is a very simple and easy way to set the slope value of the planet line that any trader should be able to perform.

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Oct 11 2011

Jupiter Planet Line and United Technology

Written by:
Patrick Mikula CTA
Mikula Forecasting Company
www.MikulaForecasting.com
support@MikulaForecasting.com
Copyright © 2011 by Patrick Mikula All Rights Reserved

This is the second discussion of the MarketWarrior indicator, AT_Planet Lines Top Bottom. This indicator draws a planet line beginning at a user selected starting point. In this posting I am again going to discuss how to set the slope of the line so it reflects the specific market with which you are working.

To customize the slope of the planet line, select a low to high or high to low swing that looks like an average swing.  Start from point A I have started a Jupiter line. The planet line runs from the low at A to the top at point B. The Jupiter line has been set to touch the exact low to high swing points using the Multiply setting of 1.4.

The picture below shows the daily chart for United Technology (UTX). Starting from point C, I have drawn a Jupiter planet line with the same slope of  1.4 as described above. On this chart the arrows and the letters D identify where there were turning points on this line. This shows that the same slope between A – B was also present between the points C – D.  My observation using this method is that the same slope can work for as long as a year locating Change In Trend (CIT) points before it has to be reset.

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Oct 10 2011

Mars Planet Line and Exxon

Written by:
Patrick Mikula CTA
Mikula Forecasting Company
www.MikulaForecasting.com
support@MikulaForecasting.com
Copyright © 2011 by Patrick Mikula All Rights Reserved

In this posting I am going to use the MarketWarrior indicator AT_Planet Lines Top Bottom. I am also going to discuss this indicator in the next three blog postings. These postings will discuss how to use this indicator to find Change In Trend (CIT) points. This indicator will draw a planet line starting from a high or low of your choosing. This indicator requires the user to set a value that will adjust the degrees moved per day by the planet, in order to adjust the line slope. The true slope of the planet’s movement can be seen by positioning the indicator setting named Multiply to 1.0.

When I have used this indicator in the past, the Multiply setting, which is used to adjust the slope, would be set based on round values starting from the minimum tick. For example when using a stock, this value may be set to 0.01, 0.05, 0.10, 0.25, 0.50, 1.0, 2.0, 5.0 and so on. In this discussion I will show a different way to set this value so the planet line slope reflects the swings in a specific market.

When you are looking at a market, you need to select a swing from high to low or low to high that looks like an average swing. This swing will be used to set the slope of the planet line. The picture below shows a daily chart for Exxon Mobil (XOM). The low to high swing identified by the letters A and B is the swing I will use to set the slope of the planet line. The line running from A to B is a Mars planet line and it set so it touches the exact high and low at A and B. This is a Mars planet line and the Multiply setting used to adjust the slope is set to 0.189.

Now look at the second chart below. The blue line drawn from the high at point C uses the same slope, 0.189,  as described above. Notice Exxon Mobil made a bottom at point D on this planet line. This shows that the swing from C to D had a similar slope as the swing from A to B. The slopes of two swings will never be exactly the same, but they will often be similar enough that you will see a CIT occur on these lines such as the bottom at point D.

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